1-26. Russia's perception of an OE is characterized by a sense of strategic vulnerability and a desperate desire for great power status. It harbors concerns about its population over the potential for unrest caused by the general dissatisfaction with the standard of living and is entirely untrusting of the United States and its Western European allies. Russia seeks to insulate itself from the United States and its allies by creating a sphere of influence in its near-abroad in the former Soviet states and is working to become more cooperative with countries outside of Europe. The following conditions are presented using eight interrelated operational variables which are political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, and time, collectively referred to as PMESII-PT serve as a descriptive overview of Russia's understanding of its OE.
POLITICAL
1-27. To maintain the current operational environment, current Russian leaders in power must continue to achieve the nations' strategic goals:
- Integration of all elements of national power-political, cultural, economic (including energy), military, diplomatic, and IV are necessary to succeed in competition and conflicts.
- Domestic policies emphasize the importance of strategic nuclear force and conventional military capability to counter perceived threats.
- Domestic and foreign policies to maintain a strategic sphere of influence, or buffer zone, between Russia and NATO countries.
- Foreign policy efforts are expanding Russia's influence beyond its near-abroad. Russia is actively involved in the Middle East and Africa, working to establish domination in the Arctic, and joining cooperative agreements in Asia. It also continues to develop its strategic relationship and cooperation with China.
- Russia retains permanent member status on United Nations Security Council, enabling it to effectively counter attempts by this organization or many other international organizations to act against Russian interests.
MILITARY
1-28. Russia’s National Defense Strategy focuses on the following principles to counter possible United States’ and their European Allies’ aggressions to Russian Territories:
- A modern and effective military is essential to providing Russian security and to achieving world power status.
- Modern nuclear forces and means from strategic to tactical levels are essential elements of Russia's military power.
- Modernization efforts are a priority for all areas of the military, including nuclear, air, maritime, and land power.
- Capabilities development is focused on improving precision fires, anti-tank, and high mobility systems.
- Integration of military capabilities using automated command and control complexes to prevent aggressor's access to Russia's periphery are a priority for expansion.
ECONOMIC
1-29. Russia’s economic policies focus on the following:
- Economic strength is necessary to not only fuel the other elements of national power but also to attain or retain status as a world power. Economic considerations influence or direct political actions.
- Economic policies target exploitation of domestic natural resources (for example, hydrocarbons, minerals, fisheries), including those found in the Arctic.
- Export and trade controls are a means to influence or coerce other European countries.
- Power generation, military materiel, and technical expertise are key economic commodities.
SOCIAL
1-30. Russian leaders rely heavily on ensuring its social construct aligns with their strategic goals:
- Support of the Russian population is essential to maintain the nation and to achieve great power status. Russian leaders view the threat of hybrid warfare used to create internal unrest in the form of a popular revolution as a significant threat.
- Russian culture creates a strong basis to oppose Western liberal policies and initiatives.
- The ethnic Russian diaspora is a legitimate resource used to support national objectives.
- The Russian Orthodox Church has a key role to play in establishing social and military conditions in Russia.
INFORMATION
1-31. Russia’s operational environment relies heavily on controlling information:
- Russia views the information environment of utmost importance for both its domestic and foreign policy efforts.
- Russian overt and covert efforts to control the information environment and manipulate perceptions of reality will continue to target its domestic population as well as aggressors.
- Confrontations and conflicts may be won primarily—or even exclusively—by using IPb or warfare. Information actions ultimately focus on defeating a competitor's will to fight.
INFRASTRUCTURE
1-32. Russia continues to improve infrastructure with the following considerations in mind:
- Development efforts are focused on military equipment storage sites to facilitate brigade, division, and army deployment.
- Construction and maintenance of underground facilities to protect the nation’s leaders and strategic forces around Moscow will continue.
- Russia's size causes it to emphasize maintenance and improvement of its interior lines of communication, primarily rail, to facilitate rapid movement of military forces.
- Efforts to develop new contracts to build nuclear power facilities outside of Russia further Russian influence and status.
- Development of the coastal city of Kaliningrad as well as the Kaliningrad Oblast is ongoing to mitigate the effects of changing sea levels.
PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT
1-33. Russia’s large land mass poses a variety of challenges within its operational environment:
- Russia must capitalize on the effects of climate change to exploit the Arctic region before its competitors do the same.
- Russia's vast border dictates that it requires military forces that can rapidly deploy in response to a wide variety of threats.
- Military complexes must be designed to operate in areas with numerous water obstacles and Arctic conditions.
TIME
1-34. Russia understands the importance of swift actions and strategic patience to achieve its strategic goals:
- The Kremlin recognizes the timing complications that the United States faces due to the deployment distances involved to bring land forces to bear in the event of a conflict.
- Russia looks to take advantage of NATO's decision-making process, which often requires consensus and can be time consuming.
- Russia’s political leaders understand that IPb takes time to develop and becomes more effective by directing the same or related messages at the target population through various channels over an extended period.
- Russia has demonstrated the ability to employ unconventional means (proxy forces, IPb, or cyberattacks) over an extended period to undermine U.S. interests and shape potential future battlefields in their favor.